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Advisor

Re: If there isn`t enough `isms`, now `creditism`.

Also, BTW, as far as Chinese students in US universities.

 

Apparently most of the top Chinese students go to top Chinese universities with a few going to elite US institutions.  The kids from wealthy families who aren't able to qualify for either of those routes attend public universities in the US, and elsewhere.

 

State schools are happy to have qualified students who pay full price and you'd assume that full price isn't a big deal for kids with Porches. That's not all of them by any means but it is conspicuous.

 

I believe that Purdue is #1 in terms of foreign undergrads of which a good percentage are Chinese.

 

I'm not particularly indignant about any of this it is just an interesting landscape to understand.

 

 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: world currency stuff

If the EU decides to go into more self-borrowing, I expect more social spending. This then may increase the short term economy.

 

Lets, look at the Japan, change in borrowing happened after an election:

 

fut_chart.ashx.png

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Senior Advisor

Good luck!

The idea that monetary policy in the US has determined grain prices, and everything else, has been the favorite conspiracy since the Great Recession started. So far supply and demand seems to be the driving force, and China's appeetite is the biggest factor that has changed the market for ag.

 

IMO QE has been a very indirect and limited effort. And a drop in the bucket that basically affects the financial insitutions, but not the economy in general. A general asset value stimulator? I don't think so. Ag has done well even in the worst of these times due to the fortunate rise of China so the connection between QE could seem to bew connected but, it is not a general economic phenomena - which disproves the theory.

 

All assets increasing in value, violent inflation, China imploding? Hasn't happened yet. And yet we're still on the edge of devaluaton? The contradictions within the conspiracies are too great for the Unified Theory of government induced chaos.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Good luck!

Pal, a little too deep for me to understand.  I think the fact that, since Japan start self-borrowing and the money value has dropped 30% indicates bad things can happen. I believe the Japanese Government is now just stealing from long term bondholders and anyone who is invested in CD type investments.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Good luck!

Japan has been in an economic malaise for 20 years, and it's roots go back to a real estate bubble that was more or less propped up by the government. Yes, bad things can happen.

 

We badly need restructuring. One of Japan's problems is it's unholy government/big business policies. We are going the same route in giving big business what it wants and ignoring the middle class. That won't cut it. But only Congress can restructure. Meanwhile the political candidates go to their oligarch patrons one after the other to seek their blessing.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: world currency stuff

Pal I agree to disagree with your assessment. Monetary policy isn't the only factor just as china is not. Oligopolistic friend ships certainly are part of it can you say Ethanol? I think the dollar is and does have trump capabilities.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: world currency stuff

Congress will not reverse course till the people want to. And right now people have no doubt sire for a change in the oligarchy.
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Honored Advisor

Re: world currency stuff

will rogers.jpg

Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: world currency stuff

has anyone heard of the Bogainville Kina or Kino (BVK)?

 

1 = .4 grains of Gold or something close to that conversion and it's actually backed by gold...sort of back to the gold standard, i suppose, with this currency.

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Honored Advisor

Re: world currency stuff

Thanks for the clarification JR.

 

I would tend to agree to agree with both of you. To claim that almost unlimited fiat money creation around the world has had little impact is clearly wrong. To claim that the Chinese demand has had limited impact is equally wrong. Ignoring the impact of federally forced usage of 4 Bil bushels for ethanol is seriously wrong. There are about 5 key things (adverse global weather being the real driver imo) that have driven the grain farmer's prosperity. All happening at the same time. Few of which are gauranteed to continue forever. For us, normal weather, or gasp even good weather, and all the normal price retracements going into this fall are assured.

We just have to stick with the plan until proven otherwise.

 

Our approach is just way to simple for you deep thinkers. The TIME for a high is pretty close at hand, at least over the next few weeks, so we believe that all those things you and Palouse list will indeed cause a shift in money flows and as usual the farmer is better off to sell into the fear rally and assure himself large profits. Since Chinese demand for copper seems to be wavering, it is wise to consider the possibility that its demand for other things could waver.

 

The idea that this is going to be a late spring is just a fear induced idea. It might happen, it might not, either way new beans are just likey over-valued. This could easily still be a normal spring. But like I said, the window extends a few weeks yet. If it is a late spring, which I think unlikely, then new beans are even more over-priced as their acres could increase another few million.

 

 

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