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Senior Advisor

you know the ole saying

you cant buy love

 

well the market is going to find out you cant buy acres what are underwater with rain every other day

 

today was a nice up day, but its too little too late and its not going to get us acres back.  that ship sailed this weekend

 

corn will be $5 within 10 months and beans could see $12 within 12 months

 

the reality of the situation hasnt even began to sink in

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9 Replies

Re: you know the ole saying

I wonder if you might be right Mizzou. For those of us with old crop corn I don't know if we'll be easily able to capitalize. I think early yield reports in August will be pretty high as a lot of early corn around me looks great. The lower yield figures will come off later planted corn and from wet areas and sorting out a true national yield might be a real head scratcher. A big move upward may take until at least December.
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Honored Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

Misery KitTen....you really should keep an open mind about the national picture. Yes, acres will be down, but not by as much as you suspect. And, about 60% of the cropped area is in very good position. All of MN, SD, ND, NE, IL (well most of IL and IA). Just saying to keep a level head is all.

 

Our area of Indiana just got washed backward from pretty good...too...well honestly average. In an average year we have flooding and it reduces the yield by a nice chunk, which is one reason why our average is lower than it should be. Northern IN is a mess, Southern IN looks fantastic in general, so it just makes the state average.

 

This really comes down to rainfall and temps from 7/15 to 8/25 at this point. No roots, but if it keeps raining we won't need roots, kind of like last year. IF it turns off dry, it could get pretty ugle pretty quick. This part of the pricing puzzle is an unknown. Thus, you nor I cannot accurately predict $5 corn right now. 4.20 cz will stop it like a brick wall I suspect. Easy to predict a crop scare rally from 6/16 as we did, but how high is a much more variable outcome.

 

I bought corn this morning, so I hope you are right, just don't think you can justify a $5 or especially a $12 target.

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Senior Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

Misery KitTen ??? Damnit 'Time '  - I just got my elbow drained from hitting it and now YOU post that up and I fell out of my chair lmao and now it's swelling all up again - looks like pop- I - elbow ! dang the luck -  but dang good one - Smiley Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

I know it's not all bad

Planted this farm last few days of April.

Has to be pushing 30 inches of rain since planting

It has holes but looks better than it should.

It's not my best looking but it's also far from my worst. Have a creek bottom that's been replanted once already and will see a planter again If weather cooperates in the next 2 weeks. It's had over 30 inches with one 7 inch rain event back in mid May.

Across the lane is supposed to be beans. You can see a few. They got replanted this weekend.

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Senior Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

M-T - Your corn sure looks good for what it's been threw -

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Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

time, the soybean market may not reach $12, but basis could get really interesting by late august. I have heard of processors looking for soybeans to grind and know for sure that some coop locations in north iowa are cleaned out.

 

In 2013 we took our turn battling the flooding. PP all over the place, which was unheard of. North iowa and south minnesota are supposed to "matter" in the total US crop. We found out different.

 

I will say that battling to plant $14 soybeans was an easieer task/decision than battling to plant $8.50 soybeans.

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Senior Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

About the same thing here id - Bunge at Morristown is 37 over .  I have a truck on the road - hauling in beans to them , and pick'en are getting pretty thin around here , been hauling in from 70 miles North and that is all but done .  Time -- You have any beans left coming this way - need to find J something to haul  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

Now See...MO TIGER...there you go again...constantly complaining about your crops and the corn looks better than everything north of I-70 in Indiana (actually north of SR28, south of SR28 is really good in lots of places). We didn't plant any corn in April fwiw, no one did.    I was feeling sorry for your luck and then you post that picture of the corn....no more compassion for you, ya big TIGER.

 

The beans are kind of short I'll grant you, but no SDS if you plant them in late June Smiley Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: you know the ole saying

Yeah Time - M-T fogot to mention he planted the -- corn with the flood Tolerant gene in it - Smiley Happy

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